Rubaga North constituency, has a longstanding history of electing leaders who support a federal system of government. This loyalty to federalism is deeply rooted in the area’s connection to the Buganda Kingdom, whose headquarters are located within the constituency. But will this pattern hold in the upcoming election?
Today, we are going to look at the history of federalist support in Rubaga North and examine the potential challenges this political stance might face in the next election cycle, 2026.
The people of Rubaga North have consistently demonstrated their preference for candidates who champion the Buganda Kingdom’s interests, particularly the desire for a federal system. This loyalty was evident in their election of Wasswa Lule, a well-known federalist, to represent them in the Constituent Assembly responsible for drafting the current Constitution.
This trend continued with the election of Tom Kayongo in 2001. However, Kayongo, despite being affiliated with the ruling NRM party, proved to be a disappointment to his constituents due to his poor performance as a lawmaker. In the subsequent elections, voters returned to their federalist leanings, electing Beti Kamya of the FDC party in 2006.
From Kasibante to Kawalya: A Shift in the Political Landscape
The 2011 election saw the rise of Moses Kasibante, an independent candidate supported by the Ssuubi pressure group, known for advocating for Ganda interests, including federalism. Despite a controversial recount that initially declared NRM’s Singh Marwah Katongole the winner, Kasibante ultimately secured the seat after a court ruling.
He went on to win a second term, defeating Kamya, who, despite running under the UFA ticket, was perceived as an NRM candidate. In the 2021 election, Abubaker Kawalya, the flag bearer for the National Unity Platform (NUP), emerged victorious. Although Kawalya is not as vocal about federalism, he benefited from NUP’s popularity in Buganda.
The Upcoming Election: A Test of Federalist Loyalty
With the next election approaching just two years away, it remains to be seen whether Rubaga North constituency will continue its tradition of electing federalist leaders. Kawalya may face challenges from within his own party, particularly from James Mubiru, who also vied for the NUP ticket in 2020.
Mubiru has been critical of Kawalya’s performance as a representative and is positioning himself as a viable alternative. The ruling NRM party’s candidate choice will also play a crucial role in the election.
Whether they choose to back Kamya again or select a new candidate, their success will depend on their ability to sway voters away from their federalist inclinations.
The upcoming election in Rubaga North constituency promises to be a fascinating case study in Ugandan politics. Will the electorate maintain their allegiance to federalism, or will new factors reshape the political landscape? Only time will tell.
